Apple Caves To Samsung Pressure And Explores Bigger, Cheaper

by Jeff Tilton 13. June 2013 10:06

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Apple Inc is exploring launching iPhones with bigger screens, as well as cheaper models in a range of colors, over the next year, said four people with knowledge of the matter, as it takes a cue from rival Samsung Electronics.
 
The moves, which are still under discussion, underscore how the California-based firm that once ruled the smartphone market is increasingly under threat from its aggressive South Korean competitor. Samsung has overtaken Apple in market share through the popularity of its bigger-screen Galaxy "phablets" and by flooding the market with a range of products at different prices.
 
Apple is looking at introducing at least two bigger iPhones next year - one with a 4.7-inch screen and one with a 5.7-inch screen - said the sources, including those in the supply chain in Asia. They said suppliers have been approached with plans for the larger screens, but noted it is still unclear whether Apple will actually launch its flagship product in the larger sizes.
 
"They constantly change product specifications almost to the final moment, so you're not really sure whether this is the final prototype," said one person with direct knowledge of the matter.
 
Apple declined to comment.
 
UNDER PRESSURE
 
Apple's possible shift to offer what is often referred to as "phablets" - chunkier smartphones not quite big enough to qualify as tablets - comes as the long-time consumer and investor darling faces pressure to deliver more than one new handset model a year. Critics say its pace of innovation has slowed since the death of legendary co-founder Steve Jobs.
 
The iPhone 5 launched last September was the first to veer away from the Apple phone's 3.5-inch screen, which Jobs famously deemed "the perfect size for consumers" and had been used in every iPhone since the iconic device was unveiled in 2007.
 
The current iPhone 5 has one of the smaller screens among the best-selling smartphones in the mobile market, where consumers spend more time browsing the web and streaming content. Samsung's Galaxy S4 and Galaxy Note 2 have 5-inch and 5.5-inch screens, respectively.
 
For this year, Apple is expected to launch two new models, widely referred to as the iPhone 5S, with new fingerprint technology, and a cheaper version in plastic casing, supply chain sources have said. Apple plans to dress up the cheaper phone in a range of 5-6 colors to differentiate it from the more expensive model that has traditionally come only in black and white.
 
The U.S. firm has discussed a price of $99 for the cheaper phone, the timing of which could slip to next year, one of the people said. It's not yet clear what the final price would be.
 
Apple - whose revenue growth has decelerated from the heady days of 2010 when it introduced the iPad and when the iPhone was the world's top selling smartphone - has sought ways to re-energize its flagship line.
 
BROADER PRODUCT RANGE
 
Analysts say the company needs a cheaper gadget to push on in growth markets in China and India, and to counter Samsung's edge in having phones priced up and down the spectrum. China, the world's biggest smartphone market, is set to grow 48 percent this year, outpacing the global increase of 31 percent, according to industry forecasts.
 
While Apple only offers a single phone model across all markets, it has successfully marketed the iPod music player and its iPad in different sizes and at varying prices. Asked at last month's AllThingsD industry conference why Apple hasn't launched different sized iPhones, CEO Tim Cook said: "We haven't so far. That doesn't shut off the future."
 
He explained that the range of iPods serve different audiences and needs. "On the phone, that's the question. Are we now at a point to serve enough people that we need to do that?"
 
Cook noted a larger screen comes with trade-offs on features such as battery life, resolution and brightness.
 
Test production for both the standard and cheaper iPhone models aims to start next month, with mass production ramping up in August to meet a September launch target, two people said.
 
"Trial production was originally planned to start in June, but the mixing of colors is taking longer than expected as Apple has very high and idealistic standards," said one source in Asia, adding 20 million plastic iPhones are expected to ship in the October-December quarter.
 
Japan's Sharp Corp and Japan Display and South Korea's LG Display will supply the panels for the aluminum iPhone 5S and the plastic iPhone, while Hon Hai Precision Industry will assemble the higher-end phone and Pegatron will put together the cheaper model.

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Why America Doesn't Care If China Gobbles Up Iraq's Oil

by Jeff Tilton 13. June 2013 10:01

Valley Computer - www.ValleyComp.net - 206.730.1111

Donald Trump is irate.
 
When he learned that China is gobbling up Iraq's oil — to the tune of more than half its output — he freaked out.
 
"We spend $1.5 trillion, we lose thousands of lives, we destroy a country … but China is in there taking out all the oil, and we’re getting nothing ... " he said on Fox News.
 
Alas, Trump is missing the point.
 
American policy planners probably don't care if China sucks up all that oil.
 
Here's why:
 
1. Even as Chinese oil companies lock up the majority of oil from Iraq, four American development companies, including Halliburton, are sucking up half the development dollars that will be spent over the next 10 years.
 
2. The reason Chinese firms are so successful in Iraq is that their companies aren't making much money on the deal. That's right, China is just in a hurry to get the energy in order to propel its massive growth. American firms are more worried about profit, and so have more trouble winning bids (and taking undue risk).
 
3. U.S. oil companies already develop and purchase oil in (arguably) less dangerous regions (though Exxon did win rights to the Qurna oil field, one of Iraq's largest).
 
4. Oil is a global commodity. So more oil produced is better for everyone globally. Plus, as Max Fisher of The Washington Post put it, "Chinese-led [demand] spikes" in price per barrel hurt everyone.

So In the eyes of America: Let China take the risk (that being, at this moment, a possible civil war in Iraq).
 
5. The U.S. is set to be the largest exporter of oil by the year 2020. Being the largest exporter of oil when China is the largest importer has strategic significance.
 
Conversely, there's no reason to believe that China's oil contracts in Iraq will make the country more open to sanctions on Iran.
 
"China’s efforts to gain new suppliers should not be viewed as attempts to replace older relationships. They are attempts to expand their access to new suppliers who can help them meet future needs," said Mark Cozad, a Rand Corporation expert in strategic intelligence, to Business Insider.
 
"It’s highly unlikely that this will make China more amenable to sanctions against Iran.  China’s position on Iran is not based solely on its energy relationship.  China’s leadership would argue that its broader interest in Iran is [about] protecting national sovereignty and preventing a strong power from coercing a weaker one," said Cozad.

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3 Things I've Learned from Warren Buffett

by Jeff Tilton 13. June 2013 09:56

Valley Computer - www.ValleyComp.net - 206.730.1111

I’m looking forward to sharing posts from time to time about things I’ve learned in my career at Microsoft and the Gates Foundation. (I also post frequently on my blog.)

Last month, I went to Omaha for the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting. It’s always a lot of fun, and not just because of the ping-pong matches and the newspaper-throwing contest I have with Warren Buffett. It’s also fun because I get to learn from Warren and gain insight into how he thinks.

Here are three things I’ve learned from Warren over the years:

1. It’s not just about investing.

The first thing people learn from Warren, of course, is how to think about investing. That’s natural, given his amazing track record. Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of people stop, and they miss out on the fact that he has a whole framework for business thinking that is very powerful. For example, he talks about looking for a company’s moat—its competitive advantage—and whether the moat is shrinking or growing. He says a shareholder has to act as if he owns the entire business, looking at the future profit stream and deciding what it’s worth. And you have to be willing to ignore the market rather than follow it, because you want to take advantage of the market’s mistakes—the companies that have been underpriced.

I have to admit, when I first met Warren, the fact that he had this framework was a real surprise to me. I met him at a dinner my mother had put together. On my way there, I thought, “Why would I want to meet this guy who picks stocks?” I thought he just used various market-related things—like volume, or how the price had changed over time—to make his decisions. But when we started talking that day, he didn’t ask me about any of those things. Instead he started asking big questions about the fundamentals of our business. “Why can’t IBM do what Microsoft does? Why has Microsoft been so profitable?” That’s when I realized he thought about business in a much more profound way than I’d given him credit for.

2. Use your platform.

A lot of business leaders write letters to their shareholders, but Warren is justly famous for his. Partly that’s because his natural good humor shines through. Partly it’s because people think it will help them invest better (and they’re right). But it’s also because he’s been willing to speak frankly and criticize things like stock options and financial derivatives. He’s not afraid to take positions, like his stand on raising taxes on the rich, that run counter to his self-interest. Warren inspired me to start writing my own annual letter about the foundation’s work. I still have a ways to go before mine is as good as Warren’s, but it’s been helpful to sit down once a year and explain the results we’re seeing, both good and bad.

3. Know how valuable your time is.

No matter how much money you have, you can’t buy more time. There are only 24 hours in everyone’s day. Warren has a keen sense of this. He doesn’t let his calendar get filled up with useless meetings. On the other hand, he’s very generous with his time for the people he trusts. He gives his close advisers at Berkshire his phone number, and they can just call him up and he’ll answer the phone.

Although Warren makes a point of meeting with dozens of university classes every year, not many people get to ask him for advice on a regular basis. I feel very lucky in that regard: The dialogue has been invaluable to me, and not only at Microsoft. When Melinda and I started our foundation, I turned to him for advice. We talked a lot about the idea that philanthropy could be just as impactful in its own way as software had been. It turns out that Warren’s brilliant way of looking at the world is just as useful in attacking poverty and disease as it is in building a business. He’s one of a kind.

 

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